We all know the Sydney brand of football.
The Swans love the contest; a hard-nosed, contested ball-winning side that seek to play the game in close and dictate terms – especially in the confines of their home ground the SCG.
With an ever-present link to their heritage as the Bloods, it’s a side that ensures big bodies are around the football and one which is ready to fight, scrap and win the ball whenever it is in dispute.
The statistics say as much, with Sydney ranking first in average contested possessions (164.8 per game) across the competition. Of all Sydney’s possessions, 42 per cent are contested on average, which again is ranked first in the AFL.
But this has created the great contested ball myth of the Sydney Swans.
A side praised so highly for its inside play actually concedes the most contested possessions across the league, with 155.5 per game going back the other way. They do rank third overall in average contested possession differential, but that essentially translates to just 9.4 more contested possessions than their opponents every game.
To break this down further, the Swans certainly play the contested style of football for which they are renowned, but actually invite their opposition to join them in doing so. This is not a problem in the slightest when facing a side which struggles in that area, but on Friday night at Simonds Stadium that will not be the case.
The Cats have the ability to match Sydney on the inside, ranking eighth in average contested possessions (144.1 per game) and fourth in average contested possession differential (+8.4). More importantly though, Geelong is 16th in average contested possessions conceded (135.6 per game), which means the Swans (who we have already established average nearly half of their possessions as contested) will have a real fight on their hands to win that inside battle over four quarters.
Of course the real indication will be the clearances and we can see that Sydney sit fifth in average clearances (38.7 per game), eighth in average clearance differential (+0.4) and win the clearances 41 per cent of the time on average (sixth in the AFL).
Contrast that with the Cats who themselves rank third in both average clearances per game (38.9) and average clearance differential (+3.8) but also win the clearances 43.5 per cent of the time on average (second in the AFL).
For the sake of a hypothetical though, let’s say Sydney do get on top of the contested ball and restrict Geelong’s own impressive inside ability.
The Swans play a game built around long kicks and rank fourth in that area with 67.4 per game on average. They choose the short pass the least out all 18 sides in the AFL (60.5 per game on average).
What’s important to note here is once again the fact Sydney have such a high contested possession rate, meaning those long kicks are often coming from within or out of a congested area. Again, the statistics illustrate this with the Swans ranking first in average ineffective kicks per game (56.2) whilst holding the title of worst disposal efficiency in the AFL (70.3 per cent). The Swans also sit third in average clangers with 52.9 per game.
We can again compare this to the Cats, who rank 13th in average ineffective kicks per game (47.6) and fifth overall in disposal efficiency at 74.4 per cent (some 4.1 per cent better than Sydney).
What it all means is Geelong simply need match Sydney in contested ball and – interestingly enough – will in fact be allowed to do so. Alternatively, the Cats have the potential to greatly limit the Swans’ ability to get their contested ball game firing on all cylinders in the first place and win those much-important clearances.
But regardless of those outcomes, Geelong is also significantly more efficient coming out of contested situations and around the ground in general.
We all know and indeed respect the Sydney brand of football – if not only for its longevity and success. All the same, you will need to forgive the Cats for grinning from ear to ear at the chance to expose what is the great contested ball myth of the Sydney Swans.
