Geelong's finals destiny now sits in the hands of other teams after suffering an 11-point loss against Hawthorn on Saturday, leaving coach Chris Scott scratching his head.
Trailing by 26 points at the final change, the Cats cut the Hawks' lead to six points in the dying stages before a Jaeger O'Meara snap put the game beyond reach.
It continues a trend of Geelong charging hard in final quarters and falling short when their backs are against the wall.
"This one makes it harder for us," Scott said post-match.
"Without going into the detail, and don't hold me to it, but I would imagine there's a mathematical equation that might make it difficult for us (to make finals).
"I could talk to you about it for ages, because I've probably done the ladder predictor 500 times, but you know what, it doesn't matter.
"Our responsibility internally is to make sure we play as well as we possibly can this week and next week.
"Our priority has just got to be, (to) play as well as we can, get ourselves in good form. We're in okay form but I'm confident we can play a lot better than we did tonight."
For the fourth time in five weeks, the Cats appeared to be on their last legs early in the final term before rallying.
With ruckman Rhys Stanley sidelined and Mark Blicavs' move into the ruck throwing out the pre-game structure, the Cats surged into contention with three consecutive goals.
Costly set shot misses from James Parsons and Tom Hawkins brought the game to within one kick as the Hawks held their nerve.
"The comeback was good, I don't think anyone can accuse us of not hanging in there and believing we can win when the chips are down," Scott said.
"I think the more pertinent question is, 'Why are we waiting so long to play that way in games'?"
Scott was left frustrated by a second quarter inside 50 count (18-6) dominated by the Hawks as they piled on five unanswered goals in the space of 20 minutes.
Patrick Dangerfield (40 disposals) and Gary Ablett (32 disposals) again carried the midfield with more questions set to come on the Cats' underperforming depth players.
Forwards Lachie Fogarty (five disposals), Daniel Menzel (seven disposals) and James Parsons (eight disposals) had quiet afternoons, while Scott admitted it was a "brave" call to pick developing Irishman Mark O'Connor in defence.
When asked if his side relied on its top-end with too many passengers, Scott replied: "The short answer if you want it is, 'We would've preferred a more even contribution across the team'."
The Cats will assess Stanley's calf complaint during the week, while they hope to regain defender Jed Bews who missed with a shoulder injury.
Cats lose control of their finals fate
Geelong's finals destiny now sits in the hands of other teams