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FORM & HISTORY
Geelong and St Kilda have had plenty of classic battles across the years, none better for Geelong fans than the 2009 Grand Final. There are a handful of players from each team who will remember that day but both sides are full of fresh young talent. Since 2009 Geelong and St Kilda have played seven times with Geelong holding a 5-2 record.
Geelong coach Chris Scott's first game as coach came against St Kilda, kicking off the 2011 season with a dour match. The senior Geelong players stuck to Scott's new game plan until the final whistle with veteran, and substitute, Darren Milburn kicking the winning goal with 19 seconds left in the match. That match put Chris Scott's emotions in the coaching box in the limelight, and much to Cats fans delight, he hasn't changed.
The Cats have dominated the past two meetings, registering huge margins of 96 and 101 points respectively. Geelong needs all the percentage they can get, and another big victory will keep their finals hopes alive.
THE LEAD UP
Similarly to last week, the lead up to Geelong's Round 21 match has been largely focused around the possible return of luckless forward, Daniel Menzel ($142,000 FWD). Chris Scott has hosed down expectations however. He stated in his weekly press conference that Menzel is more likely to make his return in Round 22 against Collingwood. There are plenty of other players in the mix however.
Tom Lonergan ($313,000 DEF) will return to the side after missing the match against Hawthorn due to illness and he could get the matchup against returning youngster, Paddy McCartin ($268,000 FWD). Shane Savage ($395,000 DEF) and Luke Dunstan ($373,000 MID) are both expected to return to the St Kilda team this week, the former proving a critical matchup for Geelong's forwards.
Mitch Duncan ($435,000 MID) needs to pass a fitness test late in the week if he is to take his place in the side but James Kelly ($426,000 DEF) is unlikely to play, needing a week’s rest to recover from the ankle injury suffered against Hawthorn.
KEY MATCH-UP
The key area Geelong need to focus on to get on top against St Kilda is their plethora of half back flankers. The likes of Jarryn Geary ($423,000 DEF), Shane Savage ($395,000 DEF) and Dylan Roberton ($469,000 DEF) provide St Kilda with a lot of run out of defence. Geelong prefers to rotate attacking midfielders through their forward line rather than having genuine medium and small forwards. Defence will be the key to attack for Geelong's young midfielders such as Cory Gregson ($257,000 MID) and Darcy Lang ($303,000 MID).
Sean Dempster ($396,000 DEF) will miss the match due to the lingering effects of a broken nose, which leaves St Kilda short in defence. Tom Hawkins ($395,000 FWD) gets his chance this week to really assert himself in Geelong's forward line. If he can dominate his opponent, the forward 50 will open up for Geelong's other forwards.
BOOM OR BUST
Jackson Thurlow
After a really strong start to the season in terms of AFL Fantasy output, Jackson Thurlow ($304,000 DEF/MID) has dropped off in recent weeks. His form on the football field however has been solid. In the absence of Jed Bews, he's been tasked with more defensive roles in recent weeks and has held up well. Although Thurlow has the potential to put out a strong AFL Fantasy score, he is a case of buyer beware and a genuine boom or bust prospect this week.
Cameron Guthrie
Cameron Guthrie's ($469,000 MID) form has been booming in the past three weeks. He has been released from tagging duties and has three consecutive AFL Fantasy scores of over 100 points. At his price, he represents real value, especially heading into AFL Fantasy finals and with one of the better matchups of the round.
FOOTY PROPHET'S FANTASY FIVE
1. Cameron Guthrie ($469,000 MID)
2. Joel Selwood ($553,000 MID)
3. Mark Blicavs ($520,000 RUCK/MID)
4. Tom Hawkins ($395,000 FWD)
5. Andrew Mackie ($453,000 DEF)
