There is a lot to be said about the improvement of St Kilda in 2016.
The Saints have a 5-7 record and sit in 12th position on the ladder, though many would agree there could just as easily be a few more ticks in the win column.
It’s been a case of close but no cigar at times for Alan Richardson’s young side; having pushed Port Adelaide all the way in round one and done the same to North Melbourne in round seven. The Saints would also love a do-over of their 3-point loss to Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium in round four – of that there is no doubt.
Yes, any St Kilda supporter would feel buoyed by what the Saints have marched out this season; with the latest win against Carlton in round 12 as clinical, well-rounded and scintillating a performance as seen by any side this season.
Their chances this week against Geelong are only heightened by having enjoyed the week off thanks to the bye and the inclusions of skipper Nick Riewoldt and his protégé Paddy McCartin.
So what can the Cats expect from the Saints on their home deck of Etihad Stadium on Saturday night?
To begin with, the Saints are not a side renowned for their contested ball winning ability. In fact, they rank 16th overall for contested possessions and sit 13th for average clearances.
Compounding this is the fact they sit 18th in frees for and 13th for frees against, which could suggest the Saints are indeed second to the ball in contested situations.
But what St Kilda lacks at the contest they more than make up for on the outside. 65% of all Saints’ possessions are uncontested and the side sits third across the league for average uncontested possessions.
Furthermore, their disposal efficiency is also good enough for second in the competition at 75% – some two per cent higher than the league average.
It would then be fair to assume this is a side of talented ball users who are punishing when given space. This may be true, however, the Saints are only advancing the ball some 14.7m per disposal on average (15th) and are ranked 12th for total metres gained.
St Kilda also opts for short kicks over long and are comfortable moving the ball by hand. They are ranked seventh in the league for short kicks, fifth for handballs and have a 1.14 kick-to-handball ratio (14th). The Saints also sit fifth for total handballs.
This style of play does see them retain the ball 73.1% of the time, which again highlights the efficiency of their disposal and has them ranked 10th overall for turnovers at 66.7 per game on average.
But no matter how well you move the ball around the ground and take pride in your possession, the way the ball moves into the forward line and towards goal is the most crucial statistic of all.
After thirteen rounds of the 2016 premiership season, the Saints are generating 50.3 inside 50s per game (13th) and score at a rate of 38.1% from those entries, with 22.1% of them resulting in goals (9th).
From all of this you can naturally draw your own conclusions. But if you’re Geelong, the means to the end is clear – and thankfully not too dissimilar to how the Cats play week in week out. Win the ball at the contest first and foremost, value each possession and pressure the ball carrier when you’re without it.