Perception is a curious thing. But it’s far more curious in football.
Take the Western Bulldogs for example; a side whose meteoric rise over the past 18 months is almost always illustrated with the terms “youth” and “inexperience”.
We’re led to believe these “young pups” are seemingly a bolt from the blue; an overnight success – whilst their opponents on Saturday night at Etihad Stadium are considered the very opposite.
The Cats are widely regarded as a relatively mature and seasoned outfit.
There is of course the odd throwaway line about Geelong’s “new look” in 2016 thanks to a bumper off-season which saw new faces Patrick Dangerfield, Zac Smith, Lachie Henderson and Scott Selwood walk into Simonds Stadium.
But overall, a list led by three-time flag winner Joel Selwood and featuring the likes of premiership veterans Bartel, Taylor, Mackie and Lonergan does tend to have the opposite feel to that of the young Sons of the West.
In fact, most punters would say on face value that the Cats have far more years, games and experience in the bank than most teams, let alone the Dogs.
The numbers say otherwise:
Age (avg.) | Games (avg.) | |
Geelong | 23.5 years | 71 |
Western Bulldogs | 23 years | 63 |
Competition (avg.) | 23.4 years | 81 |
Clearly the age and game demographics of both lists are far more similar than just face value.
On average, the Cats do have a slight advantage in games played over the Dogs but not of great significance. Geelong is also some ten games shy of the average games played across the competition.
But the numbers also tell us the Cats will need to improve across a number of areas on Saturday night if they are to beat the Western Bulldogs – starting with the inside ball, as senior coach Chris Scott has already noted.
Take a look:
Clearances (avg.) | Contested Possessions (avg.) | Uncontested Possessions (avg.) | Disposal Efficiency (avg.) | |
Geelong | 40.1 (3rd) | 146.2 (7th) | 232.4 (8th) | 74% (9th) |
Western Bulldogs | 38.8 (4th) | 154.1 (2nd) | 279.9 (1st) | 75% (3rd) |
The Western Bulldogs are a contested ball-winning juggernaut and that’s more than simply perception.
Whilst sitting just behind the Cats for average clearances, the numbers show exactly how good the Dogs are at winning the ball on the inside, feeding it from the contest to the outside and then disposing of it with class.
What they do once the ball enters their forward half, however, is eerily similar to the Cats – and not in a good way:
Goal kicking percentage (avg.) | Goals (avg.) | Behinds (avg.) | |
Geelong | 48.5% (14th) | 15 (5th) | 14.4 (1st) |
Western Bulldogs | 49.5% (13th) | 13.3 (10th) | 11.9 (7th) |
It’s become a weekly occurrence for Geelong to be criticised for the side’s waywardness in front of goal. There is a very strong and arguably fair perception that the Cats have the “yips”.
But in terms of goal kicking percentage, the Dogs themselves are only good for 13th in the AFL whilst the Cats sit 14th. The Cats are in fact kicking more goals than the Dogs too, averaging roughly two more a game.
Overall, however, it will have nothing to do with age, experience or perception on Saturday night – that much is clear.
What is clearer still is that the Cats will need to win the ball first and make the most of their opportunities in front of goal to come away with the four points against the Western Bulldogs.
And that’s not curious at all.