1. Hawthorn
64 points (16 wins, four losses) 122.4 per cent
The run home
Rd 22: West Coast (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG)
If the Hawks win:
- They stay a game clear on top, with Collingwood in the final round standing between them, the minor premiership and a gilt-edged draw for the finals.
If they lose:
- They could drop to fourth on the ladder if the Swans, Cats and Crows all win.
Quick take: The loss by the Giants mean the Hawks only need to win one of their last two to book the double chance. But they'd like to win both to finish on top and stay at home in week one.
Predicted finish: Fourth
Predicted final match-up: v Sydney Swans, first qualifying final, ANZ Stadium
2. Sydney Swans
60 points (15 wins, five losses), 146.9 per cent
The run home
Rd 22: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
Rd 23: Richmond (SCG)
If the Swans win:
- They stay second and could go top if Hawthorn loses to West Coast.
If they lose:
- Could drop to fourth if the Cats and Crows win. Percentage keeps them in the top four ahead of the Giants, Eagles and Bulldogs, even if they also win.
Quick take: The Swans are 1-0 at Blundstone Arena, having beaten North there by 39 points in 2013. Last three winning margins, 90 points, 67 points and 70 points.
Predicted finish: First
Predicted final match-up: v Hawthorn, first qualifying final, ANZ Stadium
3. Adelaide
60 (15 wins, five losses), 143.9 per cent
The run home
Rd 22: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23: West Coast (Adelaide Oval)
If the Crows win:
- second place if the Swans or Hawks lose, top if they both lose.
If the Crows lose:
- Will swap places with the Cats in fourth and could drop to fifth if the Giants do a number on Freo.
Quick take: With Port's season shot, Adelaide Oval might be close to 50-50 when it comes to crowd support at the Showdown next week. Port is the home team.
Predicted finish: Second
Predicted final match-up: v Geelong, second qualifying final, Adelaide Oval
4. Geelong
60 points (15 wins, five losses), 135.4 per cent
The run home
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
Rd 23: Melbourne (Simonds Stadium)
If the Cats win:
- They stay fourth, but any loss by Adelaide, the Swans the Hawks could see them climb further up the ladder.
If they lose:
- The Giants will, and the Eagles might, climb past them.
Quick take: The Cats have been mugged by the lowly Lions at the Gabba before, so will tread very carefully this time around. They might not want to leave things until the final quarter.
Predicted finish: Third
Predicted final match-up: v Adelaide, second qualifying final, Adelaide Oval
5. Greater Western Sydney
56 points (14 wins, six losses), 137.6 per cent
If the Giants win:
- They remain on track for a home elimination final and could climb back into the top four if the Crows or Cats stumble
If the Giants lose:
- They'll certainly drop to sixth given that the Dogs will beat Essendon and to seventh if the Eagles beat the Hawks as well.
Quick take: If results from here go to form there is every chance the Giants and North could meet in consecutive weeks – round 23 at Etihad Stadium and an elimination final at Spotless Stadium.
The run home
Rd 22: Fremantle (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 23: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)
Predicted finish: Fifth
Predicted final match-up: v North Melbourne, first elimination final, Spotless Stadium
6. West Coast
56 points (14 wins, six losses), 129.2 per cent
If the Eagles win:
- They could move into the top four if two of Adelaide, Geelong or GWS lose.
If they lose:
- Likely to drop back to seventh after the Western Bulldogs beat Essendon.
Quick take: The Eagles demolished Hawthorn in a final at Domain Stadium almost 12 months ago. Can they constrict the Hawks on the skinny ground again?
The run home
Rd 22: Hawthorn (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Predicted finish: Seventh
Predicted final match-up: v Western Bulldogs, second elimination final, MCG
7. Western Bulldogs
56 points (14 wins, six losses), 115.3 per cent
The run home
Rd 22: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 23: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
If the Dogs win:
- They stay seventh, but could leapfrog West Coast back into sixth place and set themselves up for a home final as long as the Eagles lose to Hawthorn.
If they lose:
- They remain in seventh place.
Quick take: Percentage would be nice for the Bulldogs this week in their one game against Essendon. But are they playing well enough to kick a large enough score?
Predicted finish: Sixth
Predicted final match-up: v West Coast, second elimination final, MCG
8. North Melbourne
48 points (12 wins, eight losses), 108.5 per cent
The run home
Rd 22: Sydney Swans (Blundstone Arena)
Rd 23: GWS (Etihad Stadium)
If the Kangaroos win:
- They remain in eighth place, with odds firming that they'll play GWS in the final game and again first week of the finals.
If they lose:
- They'll be just one game clear of Melbourne in the likely event the Demons beat Carlton.
Quick take: North will get a number of big guns back over the next fortnight. But will they be match-hardened enough?
Predicted finish: Eighth
Predicted final match-up: v GWS, first elimination final, Spotless Stadium
9. Melbourne
40 points (10 wins, 10 losses) 104.8 per cent
The run home
Rd 22: Carlton (MCG)
Rd 23: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
If the Demons win:
- They'll be one game out of the eight if North loses to Sydney at Blundstone Arena.
If they lose:
- They're done for 2016. But as a building block for the future, it has been an excellent season.
Quick take: At this stage, you'd have to argue that Melbourne would be a more difficult elimination finalist than North Melbourne.
10. St Kilda
40 points (10 wins, 10 losses) 91.9 per cent
The run home
Rd 22: Richmond (MCG)
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions (Etihad Stadium)
If the Saints win
- They're mathematically alive if they win by 20 goals and the Kangaroos lose to the Swans by the same. That ain't happening
If they lose
- Curtains for 2016. Officially.
Quick take: A 12-10 finish is still likely for the Saints, which represents an excellent season.
