PATRICK Dangerfield is the red-hot favourite to take home 'Charlie' on Monday night, with some talk the Geelong superstar could even break Dane Swan's all-time Brownlow Medal votes record.
But this year's count could be much closer than many people expect, if AFL.com.au's predictor is any guide.
Dangerfield has been tipped by our reporters to receive in the vicinity of 29 votes - similar to the 31 that got Fremantle star Nat Fyfe home by three votes ahead of West Coast's Matt Priddis last season.
However, Sydney Swans midfielder Luke Parker has flown under the radar this year and might challenge for the game's most prestigious individual honour.
In fact, AFL.com.au had the tough nut ahead of Dangerfield with two rounds remaining in the season.
After 21 rounds, Parker had 25 votes and led the star Cat by a single vote.
Dangerfield finished the season with a rush, picking up 28 touches and booting two goals against the Brisbane Lions before dominating Melbourne with 32 touches in a final-round shellacking at Simonds Stadium.
He polled five votes from our reporters for those performances.
Despite racking up 31 touches against North Melbourne in round 22 and 24 disposals and a goal in the final-round belting of Richmond, Parker failed to poll a vote from AFL.com.au in his final two games.
How the umpires view both players' last two performances could be crucial when the votes are revealed on Monday night.
Perhaps counting against Parker is his Brownlow history, having only polled 26 votes in his career to date, and the fact star teammates Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery and Lance Franklin will take votes off him.
On the other hand, Dangerfield has polled between 21-23 votes in each of his past four seasons playing for Adelaide, and should only have Cats skipper Joel Selwood (predicted to poll 16 votes) as a major competitor for votes.
Richmond bull Dustin Martin is a strong contender for a place in this year's count after a career-best campaign, although the Tigers' poor finish to the season might count against him.
Martin is expected to poll about 20 votes by round 17 and should be in the mix at the top of the leaderboard.
But the Tigers lost five of their last six games and Martin is only expected to poll two votes over that period – for his 34 touches and a goal in the win over Collingwood.
If the prolific 25-year-old can pinch some votes against Geelong in round 21 (36 disposals) or St Kilda in round 22 (31 disposals) he could be in the hunt for the medal.
West Coast gun Luke Shuey is tipped for a top-five finish alongside Martin on 22 votes, while ineligible Adelaide star Rory Sloane is expected to finish with about 23.
For the record, Collingwood's Dane Swan holds the record for most votes in a season with 34 when he won the Brownlow in 2011.
CrownBet odds have Dangerfield at $1.14, with Dustin Martin second in the market at $21, and Parker third at $23.
