In 2015, the Cats are thrilled to be partnering with fantasy experts footyprophet.com to bring you all the insight you need about Fantasy and the Cats’ fantasy value. Stay tuned for a wealth of information from the experts as they help you to fantasy glory.
REVIEW
Geelong enter the bye at the mid-point of the year sitting 10th on the ladder, with a win-loss record of 6-6. The Cats have faced some tough opponents in the first 12 rounds and have been on both ends of a big margin. The bye comes at an opportune time. The team will have a review, of sorts, and Fantasy coaches will do the same. We stop and take stock of some of the over achievers and some of the under achievers thus far.
OVER ACHIEVERS
Josh Caddy (+1) was widely touted as a breakout contender for 2015 and while he didn't have quite the consistent start to the season that we were expecting, he was recovered well in the last five weeks. Caddy has a season fantasy average of 83.9 but an average of 102 in his last three games. He may just have found the consistency we've all been looking for.
Darcy Lang (+2) started the season as one of three Geelong rookie priced midfielders along with Cory Gregson and Nakia Cockatoo. If you started with Lang in your fantasy team you'd be happy with the return on him thus far. He has had a price increase of $115,000 across the first 12 rounds of the season, averaging 61.5 points.
Cory Gregson (+3) was taken in the 2014 draft with pick 47. The fact that the ex-gymnast has played all 12 games this season is a fantastic result for the Geelong Football Club. Gregson leads Geelong for the season in goal assists and has kicked 10 goals himself. He earned a NAB Rising Star nomination after his round six performance and has made $167,000 for his fantasy coaches.
Jackson Thurlow (+3) suffered a lacerated kidney in a pre-season training incident and missed a lot of training post December. Luckily for Thurlow, and Geelong, he managed to regain the weight and fitness that he lost in hospital and missed just the first two games of the season. Thurlow has played mainly as a defender for Geelong, who see him as a replacement for Corey Enright. His use by foot has been one of the best in the Cats team and Thurlow started the season priced at just $232,000. He’s made his fantasy coaches $160,000 this year and averaged of 77.1 he has proven a worthy selection.
Corey Enright (+4) has had a stellar year thus far. There were doubts pre-season about whether the veteran could keep up his good form for another year. He has proven the doubters wrong so far, averaging 90 AFL Fantasy points, rising $22,000 in price and only scoring below 90 in three of twelve matches. It has simply just been another consistent season so far for Enright.
Mark Blicavs (+5) has been the biggest revelation to come out of the Geelong team in 2015 and perhaps the AFL. Not only is he having an immense impact in the middle of the ground, he is having a massive year in terms of fantasy football. Averaging 98.7 fantasy points, Blicavs is the best performing Cat by a long way. He is leading Geelong for hitouts and tackles and is top three for contested possessions, contested marks and one percenters. He would likely be leading Geelong's best and fairest count to date and would be one of the better late round picks in your draft team.
LET’S CALL IT EVEN
Harry Taylor has had quite a good season for Geelong so far. He has dominated a few games, taking intercept marks and influencing the contest as the third man up. He has had a few quiet games as well; his last two come to mind. A fantasy average of 75.8 is neither here nor there for Taylor, it's an improvement on last year, but perhaps not as great as was expected externally. Three scores over 100, including two over 130 have kept his fantasy coaches interested, but with a bye coming up it must be time to reconsider his position.
Cameron Guthrie's form on the field has far outshone his fantasy form and was perhaps always going to. Having been declared as Geelong's premier run with man in 2014, fantasy coaches were relieved to hear that Guthrie would be allowed to hunt the ball more in 2015. He has done, but he has played the tagging role at times as well. His fantasy average of 74.6 is hardly up from last year but he is on track to hit triple figures more often, with three under his belt already.
Rhys Stanley has lost $20,000 for fantasy coaches in 2015 and has missed four matches, but he's also gained ruck eligibility and his most recent game, 101 fantasy points, was perhaps the breakout game fantasy coaches needed to see. It's too early to call whether Rhys Stanley has over or under achieved in his first year as a Cat, but he has definitely excited.
Steve Motlop is an exciting player, so when he's on, he's on. However when he's not on, he's definitely not on. Motlop has been one of those fantasy players with large upside but when he lets you down, it's usually heavily. In 2015 he has been more consistent than in the past. He missed one game due to club suspension but scored over 90 in his first five games for the season. Add a pair of centuries to that list and you have a healthy average of 90.4 for your investment and a good second half of the season could see him raise the bar.
Mitch Clark loomed as a brilliant cash cow option in the forward line in 2015. At a bargain basement price, and all but guaranteed to be the preferred second tall forward in Geelong's starting lineup, fantasy coaches were rapt. Clark has made us money, he's risen $133,000 in price with an average of 58.5 but he's missed quite a few games. Not what you need from your rookie choices. Chris Scott has declared that Clark will play after Geelong's bye so fantasy coaches will have a choice, trade him or keep him.
UNDER ACHIEVERS
Joel Selwood (-5) was expected to lead Geelong, complete with exciting recruits, into a ninth straight finals series and he was expected to score well for his fantasy coaches in the process. He’s been heavily tagged on a number of occasions and although he is never completely out of the game (he still leads Geelong for clearances and is second for tackles) he is not accumulating disposals like he used to. He has an AFL Fantasy average of 91.1 and has lost coaches $135,000 for the season. Not the desirable return.
Steve Johnson (-4) is one of a large number of aging Cats and has spent a large amount of time in Geelong's forward line. Although it looks like Johnson is starting to find his groove as an almost permanent forward, he has shown that he can provide Geelong with some valuable possession in that area, but he is no longer the ball magnet that he used to be. His fantasy average of 80.9 is down 28 points on last year alone. However if Johnson can add forwardstatus to his 2015 fantasy bio, he may yet become a viable late season option.
Mitch Duncan (-4) had a poor start to the season. He was given some tough defensive roles in the early weeks and his fantasy scores suffered from it. Not only could Duncan not curtail his opponents influence on the game, he was finding it hard to get himself involved in it himself. After reverting back to his usual role through the middle, Duncan's form lifted dramatically. Two big scores over 130 before his injury had coaches excited; he was scoring how we expected him to score from the start of the season. Missing multiple weeks has put a dampener on it and therefore can’t go past -4.
Andrew Mackie (-3) has not ever had a fantasy average as low as his current 2015 average of 68.8. Not even in his first year. In fact, since his first year in 2006, Mackie has not averaged below 78 for a single season. To be fair, Mackie has only played the six games so far in 2015 and has plenty of time to turn his fantasy form around. A couple of low scores mixed in with a pair of centuries, does not make a happy fantasy coach, nor does a decrease of $73,000 in price.
James Kelly (-2) has had rotten luck in 2015. A ruptured testicle caused him to miss two matches and now an ankle injury could have him missing up to eight weeks. Unfortunately, we as AFL Fantasy coaches cannot ignore Kelly's two injury affected scores, nor the weeks he will miss as a result. Kelly's average is 75.4 which is below what we were expecting of him in 2015. He's also lost his coaches $81,000 making it hard to trade in a quality player. Just for the record, Kelly's average without those two injury affected scores is just a tick over 88.
Tom Hawkins (-2) has never been a fantasy gun, his low possession style game is not made for it. He scores well when he's taking a lot of marks and kicking bags of goals, something we expected to see a lot more of in 2015, especially with the inclusion of Mitch Clark. A fantasy average of 62 is not terrible by his standards, but is perhaps below external expectations, as is 21 goals for the season. An $80,000 price decrease will have hurt those coaches who were hoping for a monster forward with 50 goals to his name by now and an average above 90.
Mathew Stokes (-1) had two solid years prior to this one from a fantasy perspective but it seems the 30 year old has had a drop off. Take out his injury affected game and the West Coast game where he started as the substitute, and his fantasy average is a little more respectable at just a tick over 93. What fantasy coaches notice however is three games on the sidelines and a loss of $86,000. If you still have Stokes in your side however, he is perhaps worth hanging on to; with some consistency you'll see an uptick in his output.