The time has come to stand up and embrace the moment.
The 2020 Toyota AFL Grand Final is here with Geelong to play Richmond for the Premiership Cup from 7.30pm AEDT.
Ahead the big dance and in partnership with Deakin’s Centre for Sport Research, we take a look at some of the key talking points and obscure facts.
Fast starts matter
Seven of the previous 10 premiership sides have been leading at quarter time. That is a huge statistic that highlights just how important the start of the game will be for both sides.
A mock on the Cats in previous years has been their slow starts, but this year it has been one of their strengths, particularly during this finals campaign.
Their dominance may not have been reflected on the scoreboard, but Geelong dominated the early stages of all three of their finals so far winning the clearance and inside 50 counts on each occasion.
If Geelong’s bigger bodies can dominate in the contested areas early, it could propel the Cats towards victory.
Red time scoring
The deeper it goes, the better the Cats have been during this finals campaign outscoring their opponents by 34 points. Richmond on the other hand have been outscored by four points.
When the lactic acid is pumping and the players are at their limit, the Cats find another gear, but can they do it against the reigning premier when it matters…
Stop Dusty, Stop Tigers
There is arguably no better big occasion player in the competition than Dustin Martin, who already has two Norm Smith Medals and is pursuit of a third, but are the Tigers too reliant on their star man?
During the finals series to date Martin has been involved in 40% of all Richmond scoring opportunities. A massive number which was a little surprising given Richmond’s strength during their dominance in recent seasons has been their even contribution across the board in sharing the load.
If and it is a big IF, Geelong can somehow reduce Martin’s influence on the game, Richmond could struggle to kick a winning score.
Cam Guthrie, Jed Bews and even Joel Selwood could be options when Dusty’s in the middle, while Jake Kolodjashnij, fresh off strong games against Charlie Cameron and Jordan De Goey is likely to take Martin when he’s drifts forward.
It all comes down to this. Can the Cats win their 10th VFL/AFL Premiership? ??
— Geelong Cats (@GeelongCats) October 23, 2020
Read our match preview presented by @Deakin
Are you superstitious?
Geelong’s 2007, 2009 and 2011 premiership sides all had one thing in common. They lost in the second last round of the season and if you recall earlier this year, Geelong went down to Richmond by 26 points in Round 17.
In fact, in 2007, Geelong lost in the penultimate round to the team they defeated in the ground final. Could it be a lucky omen?
2007 - Geelong lost to Port Adelaide by 5 points
2009 – Geelong lost to Western Bulldogs by 14 points
2011 – Geelong lost to Sydney by 13 points
2020 – Geelong lost to Richmond by 26 points
Danger’s magic number
If Patrick Dangerfield kicks three goals the Cats are just about a sure thing for victory. Since joining Geelong in 2016, Dangerfield has kicked three or more goals on 16 occasions for 15 wins.
He faces a tough task with Dylan Grimes his likely opponent, but he loves the big stage and we are backing him in to produce an almighty performance.
Obscure Fact: If Dangerfield wins the North Smith Medal, he will become just the second player behind Geoff Ablett to win the Grand Final Sprint and be awarded best-on-ground in the big dance.
Defensive half mark play on
The statistics suggest that Geelong are playing on more in recent weeks than they did during the home and away season.
From Round 1 to the Qualifying Final Geelong played on from defensive half marks 23.6% of the time, that has increased to 35.4% during the past two finals.
Richmond are a team like that to setup behind the ball and are a very good intercept marking team.
The quicker Geelong can get clean ball inside 50 the less likely Richmond’s defenders will have time to setup behind the football and that could present better scoring opportunities for Geelong’s forwards.
Control v Chaos or is it Strength v Speed
Geelong are a physical team and have demonstrated that during the final’s series, using their larger frames to dominate the contested areas. They are ranked third in the competition this season for centre clearances and in recent weeks their onballers have been brilliant with their hands in and around the stoppages setting up the likes of Mitch Duncan and Gary Ablett on the outside with opportunities to hit Tom Hawkins and Gary Rohan on the lead.
While Richmond might not have the size, they do have an edge when it comes to speed. That was evident the last time the two sides met when the Tigers were able to hurt the Cats on the counter to create some easy scoring opportunities.
Richmond want to play a turnover game, a quick brand of footy. Geelong will want to play a condensed inside game with a lot of stoppages, so it’ll be interesting to see how they match-up against each other.
