The equation was simple, but not so anymore. When the Cats dropped Saturday afternoon’s matchup with the Hawks they also put their fate in the hands of other teams.

Geelong now sits a game outside the eight with just two matches to play.

For another shot at finals Geelong needs two wins from two games. With GMHBA Stadium clashes with Fremantle and the Gold Coast on the cards this is definitely doable.

The club’s fate would then come down to who it can push out of the eight. Geelong can sneak in if it wins twice and any of the below scenarios come to fruition.

Any of Hawthorn, Collingwood, Sydney or Melbourne lose both games

Hawthorn can fall out of the eight if it loses to both St Kilda (Etihad) and Sydney (SCG) and drops four percentage points to the Cats. This would roughly equate to two 20-point Geelong wins and two 10-point Hawk losses.

If Collingwood go down in the final two games of the season against Port Adelaide (MCG) and Fremantle (Optus Stadium) the Cats can leap the Pies. Geelong will also need to make up just over one percentage point over the two-game stretch.

Sydney is 7.5 percentage points behind Geelong, so can’t afford to drop both games if the Cats win two. The Swans have GWS (Spotless) and Hawthorn (SCG) on the cards.

Melbourne’s sky-high percentage of 130.5 means it has to lose twice to drop out of the eight. Geelong needs the Demons to lose to West Coast (Optus Stadium) and GWS (MCG).

Port Adelaide lose one game

If Port Adelaide drop a game against Collingwood (MCG) or Essendon (Adelaide Oval), Geelong would likely take their place. The Power has a three-point percentage deficit to the Cats.

NOTE: In all of the above scenarios, Geelong needs to win two games and keep its percentage buffer over North Melbourne (8.1%) and Essendon (12.4%) should either of these teams also win two games.