In 2015, the Cats are thrilled to be partnering with fantasy experts footyprophet.com to bring you all the insight you need about AFL Fantasy and the Cats’ fantasy value. Stay tuned for a wealth of information from the experts as they help you to fantasy glory.
FORM & HISTORY
Both Geelong and the Western Bulldogs are among a cluster of teams vying for a place inside the top eight and with the Cats a game and a half behind the pack, anything less than four points would be considered a fail. Saturday’s game will be Geelong’s second in a month following the bye and circumstances surrounding Phil Walsh’s tragic death, meanwhile the Bulldogs have won four in a row.
The history between these two teams has been littered in the league’s history, including both the ’94 and ’09 qualifying finals. In more recent times, Geelong has won the last seven encounters, largely due to their dynastical dominance and the Bulldogs’ list rejuvenation. In a fantasy sense, Geelong will enter the game with no player averaging over 100 points. Contrastingly, the Western Bulldogs have three to achieve such feat.
THE LEAD UP
The Cats and Bulldogs couldn’t have had a more dissimilar lead up to Saturday’s match after the results of the past weekend of football. In Cairns, Luke Beveridge’s men secured their ninth win of the season over the Gold Coast in a ten goal come-from-behind quarter. Four Bulldogs eclipsed the 110 point mark in fantasy, reflecting their sheer dominance in the second half. Meanwhile, Geelong’s season hit a severe road bump that now sees them six points outside the top eight. A clinical performance by North Melbourne saw off the hoops by 41 points – Jimmy Bartel (116) and Joel Selwood (103) were the only Cats to hit the fantasy ton.
Geelong will be forced to make at least one forced trade after skipper Joel Selwood ($467 000, MID) performed a chicken wing style tackle on North’s Sam Wright and consequentially suspended for one game. An innocuous chest complaint, which turned out to be a bruised lung, saw the Bulldogs’ Koby Stevens subbed out of their Round 14 game, and may miss the Geelong game.
KEY MATCHUP
Following the three week layoff, Steven Motlop ($433 000, FWD/MID) managed a mere 47 points – well down on his season average of 86.83. Against the Western Bulldogs, he is likely to line up against Bulldog defender Easton Wood whom is in contention for All-Australian honours this season. Wood has been the standout medium sized defender in the league this year and has been a catalyst for the Bulldogs in the defensive half. In Round 14, Gold Coast small forwards Brandon Matera and Aaron Hall only registered scores of 69 and 60 respectively. It comes as no secret that Matera and Hall are yet to exemplify the fantasy dexterity of Motlop, and the Cat has every chance of getting the better of Wood on Saturday. Matera and Hall combined for 4.3 while playing on Wood and the Bulldogs’ brigade of medium size defenders, hinting that Motlop may be able to find the goals while encompassing more aptitude for the football and thus, a decent AFL Fantasy score.
BOOM OR BUST
Cam Guthrie ($409 000, MID) has always oozed fantasy potential, although team roles stipulated Guthrie was Geelong’s primary run-with player. Across the last month, it appears as if Chris Scott has loosened the shackles, allowing Guthrie to play a more natural, fantasy friendly style of football. Scores of 85, 89 and 99 across his last three games paint the picture. Guthrie has finally become the fantasy player so many had hoped he would become. Averaging 91 from Round 11 onwards, Guthrie is producing greater than his current price and is a smart investment. The Bulldogs midfield, while young, possesses multiple prime movers, whom may be targets for Guthrie. In Round 14, Bulldogs’ midfield trio, Jackson Macrae (33 disposals), Marcus Bontempelli (28, two goals) and Liam Picken (36) were key contributors in their come-from-behind win. Whether Guthrie tags or not, that is still unknown, if he doesn’t expect his to continue his scintillating form.
Third year Cat Jackson Thurlow ($376 000, DEF/MID) has had a breakout 2015 campaign, solidifying himself in the Geelong back six and registering career-best numbers. His early season form, including three scores over 90 and an average of 82 until Round 9, hallmarked his breakout season however Thurlow has significantly decreased production since then. Andrew Mackie’s ($405 000, DEF) return may have played a role in Thurlow’s downfall. Mackie, returning to the side as the substitute in Round 8, has played greater than 89% game time in each of the five games since. In the same time, Thurlow’s fantasy production has curtailed, averaging 64.4 in the same stretch. Saturday’s game against the Bulldogs may be pivotal to Thurlow’s fantasy propensity for the remainder of 2015. A break even of 90 is attainable, however the young cat will need to recapture the form shown in the earlier stages of the season.
FOOTY PROPHET’S FANTASY FIVE
- Mark Blicavs ($539 000, MID/RUC)
- Josh Caddy ($486 000, MID)
- Jimmy Bartel ($489 000, FWD)
- Corey Enright ($481 000, DEF)
- Steve Johnson ($455 000, MID)
