In 2015, the Cats are thrilled to be partnering with fantasy experts footyprophet.com to bring you all the insight you need about AFL Fantasy and the Cats’ fantasy value. Every week Footy Prophet will rank their ‘Footy Prophet Fantasy Five’, ranking the top 5 players predicted to score the highest and then will review the results in the review!
FORM & HISTORY
Since the beginning of the Ross Lyon era, Geelong and Fremantle have endured some of the best and most intense games of their respective seasons. The constant skirmishes between Steve Johnson and Ryan Crowley, Matthew Scarlett’s strike on Hayden Ballantyne in the opening round of 2012 and the electrifying qualifying final in 2013 are all remnants of the exclusive rivalry between the two heavyweights. Fremantle leads the Geelong 3-2 in the last five encounters and may enter the game as favourites by pundits. David Mundy’s after the siren behind saw Geelong victorious in the two sides’ last stoush, while Harry Taylor collected the three Brownlow votes, Nathan Fyfe 2 and Joel Selwood 1.
THE LEAD UP
The opening round of the season was dire for Geelong, who were overwhelmed but a complete and synergised Hawthorn outfit, who ran out 62 point victors. A late withdrawal, the loss of veteran Cat Andrew Mackie proved costly as the small Hawthorn forwards put on a masterclass in front of over 60,000 people. While the team convincingly underperformed, the unveiling of Nikia Cokatoo ($267,000 MID) and Cory Gregson ($152,000) along with Mitch Clark ($184,000), for the first time in Geelong hoops was a highpoint.
The elevation of Steven Motlop continued and was one of the Cat’s best gathering 32 disposals on his way to 122 points. Premiership heroes Matthew Stokes, Jimmy Bartel ($560,000), Steve Johnson and James Kelly also posted healthy fantasy figures playing through the midfield. Unfortunately Steve Johnson was cited by the Match Review Panel, however will be available for selection this round, while Bartel was concussed in a tackle late in the last quarter and could be in doubt after a history with head knocks and concussions.
On the other hand, Geelong’s round two opponent Fremantle recorded a win over Port Adelaide in a game that went down to the wire. A physical stoush for much of the game, five Port players posted 100+ scores indicating there are a lot of points on offer against the Fremantle midfield. Captain Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands were prominent and will prove a handful for Hamish McIntosh and Harry Taylor given they line up with their equivalents.
KEY MATCH-UP
In recent times, Joel Selwood ($589 000 MID) has had a mixed assortment of games against Fremantle, seeing a varying fluctuation of scores from the Geelong skipper. This variance can be traced into one common denominator – Ryan Crowley. The league’s best tagger is influential in AFL Fantasy by hindering the league’s most prolific midfielders from impacting proceedings, the stats sheet and in turn, their fantasy scores. Crowley varies between the hard-nosed Selwood and mercurial half-forward turned midfielder Steve Johnson ($605,000 MID).
Simply, which ever midfielder Crowley tags, will suffer a detestable fantasy score, while the other flourishes. However, with Crowley inundated with a provisional suspension, both Selwood and Johnson should be able to play their natural style. During Fremantle’s Round 1 clash with heavyweights Port Adelaide, Clancee Pearce was assigned the tagging duties in Crowley’s absence, however failed to restrict Port superstars Robbie Gray and Travis Boak, who both posted fantasy scores over 110.
History tells us that when both Selwood and Johnson aren’t tagged against Fremantle, they are more than capable of producing elite scores. In Round 20 last year, Crowley opted to tag Johnson and Selwood consequently went on to gather 27 disposals and 130 fantasy points. There is no doubt Pearce will be given the orders to run with either of the superstars, however given his ineffectiveness on Boak on Sunday, don’t be surprised if they still post a fantasy score true to their potential.
BOOM OR BUSTS
Cam Guthrie
While Guthrie ($423,000 MID) is an elite talent, capable of being a potent two-way midfielder, is the unheralded tagger of the Geelong squad. Early in the preseason, Chris Scott and his coaching staff were eager to relieve Guthrie from tagging duties to mould him into the true footballer he is capable of becoming. However, Fremantle’s midfield includes one of the competition’s best in Nathan Fyfe, and as such, Guthrie is likely to be assigned to run with Fyfe. While Guthrie’s role in the team is paramount for a victory, his score may not be too flash and may suffer a price drop after the lockout.
James Kelly
Despite entering the twilight of his career, Kelly ($495,000 DEF) now holds an important role within the squad, more so than the 2013 and 2014 seasons. While the new wave of midfielders such as Josh Caddy ($390,000), Cam Guthrie and George Horlin-Smith ($366,000) are yet to take the next leap in their careers, a reliance has been placed on veterans such as Bartel and Kelly to return to the midfield in order to keep the Geelong candle alight. While Kelly was moved to a half-back role throughout 2014, Kelly’s return to the midfield places an emphasis on his season, and in particular the Round 2 clash against Fremantle. The quantity of elite midfielders in Fremantle’s best 22 will force Kelly to play throughout the midfield, so coaches can expect more exposure to influence the stats sheet.
FOOTY PROPHET'S FANTASY FIVE`
- 1. Steve Johnson ($605,000 MID)
- 2. Joel Selwood ($589,000 MID)
- 3. Andrew Mackie ($475,000 DEF)
- 4. James Kelly ($495,000 DEF)
- 5. Mitch Duncan ($519,000 DEF)
