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FORM & HISTORY
It was 44 years in the making, and finally, the monkey was off the back. After falling desperately close throughout the 1990s, in 2007 Geelong had broken their premiership drought – against Round 11 opponents, Port Adelaide. The match reaped multiple AFL/VFL records including the largest margin in a Grand Final, a clinical 119 points. It was the first of three premiership cups in what would become one of modern football’s most dominant dynasties.
Since that fateful day in September, Geelong and Port Adelaide have squared off multiple times, producing many performances worthy of a second viewing. Just weeks before the 2007 Grand Final, Port upset Geelong at what is now known as Simonds Stadium. The win broke Geelong’s run of 15 consecutive wins, courtesy of a Domenic Cassisi goal with seconds left.
Perhaps the most recent thrilling encounter between these sides was the 2013 semi-final. Played at a packed MCG, Port was the league’s young bolter while Geelong, desperate to keep their dynasty alive, was eager to prove otherwise. Ex-Cat Paul Chapman kicked four goals which ultimately led to a Geelong victory, however the veteran would never pull on the hoops again after being suspended and joining Essendon at year’s end.
THE LEAD UP
Both Port Adelaide and Geelong have had their ups and downs in season 2015, through adversity, injury troubles and form issues but have stuck fat and are building momentum. The Power and Cats are entrenched in a finals battle, perched 9th and 10th respectively in a clogged ladder where 3rd to 14th is only separated by two wins. As a result, the game proves as another danger game for both teams with aspirations cemented deep into September.
Port Adelaide have overcome the odds after being Premiership favourite by some in the preseason. Winning the past two, Ken Hinkley’s men have regained some of the form that brought them agonisingly close to a Grand Final appearance last year. On the other hand, Geelong too have squared the ledger at 5-5 after a slowish start to the season. Geelong overpowered Essendon in Round 10, kicking six unanswered goals in the second quarter to record a comfortable victory.
Geelong remains the AFL’s worst clearance team while also ranking 18th in contested possessions. The Power rank fourth for clearances with an average of 42 per game but are only comparatively better in contested possessions, ranked 11th. The matchup will also feature two of the league’s most inspirational captains in Travis Boak ($533 000, MID) and Joel Selwood ($497 000, MID), perhaps a key indicator as to which side will prevail.
KEY MATCHUP
After crossing over to Port Adelaide before the start of the 2013 season, Angus Monfries ($379 000, FWD) has developed his role from a goal kicking forward at Essendon, to a defensive minded forward in 2015. Monfries will exercise his trade again on Friday night most likely against Andrew Mackie ($426 000, DEF). Mackie, since returning to the side in Round 8 has scored a sub affected 58 along with 87 and 110 across the past fortnight. His strong form warrants attention from Monfries who in recent weeks has kept rebounding defenders Bob Murphy to 12 disposals, Bachar Houli (12) and Jed Adcock (11). A breakeven of 64 for Mackie may seem more than reachable, although the impending Monfries attention could wreak havoc for Mackie and his price in the lead up to the bye rounds.
BOOM OR BUST
Matthew Stokes ($413 000, MID) has been relatively quiet for Geelong this season, not in performance, but publicity and recognition in the fantasy scene. Realistically, Stokes has compiled one poor game this season coming in Round 2 against Fremantle. Despite this, Stokes has plummeted $98k from his starting price due to injury in Round 3 and a green vest in Round 9. When his subdued performances are taken out of the occasion, Stokes is averaging 89.4 across five games. AFL Fantasy coaches are always keen to swoop on a fallen premium for a minimum price, a label that Stokes acclimatises to. If Stokes is able to provide owners, and potential owners with another decent performance heading into Geelong’s bye, the Cat will be the optimum fallen premium to cash in on after the team bye.
Mercurial veteran Steven Johnson ($466 000, MID) has enjoyed an excellent history against Port Adelaide and Friday night looms as another opportunity for Johnson to prove his worth among his owners. Of course, Johnson deservedly won the Norm Smith medal in the 2007 Grand Final kicking four goals and gathering 23 disposals. In the two sides’ most recent encounter, Johnson was Geelong’s top scorer with 107 points. Stevie J poses the same predicament as Stokes above, looming as an ideal cheap upgrade post-bye having fallen $147k since Round 1. Following an underwhelming start to the season, Johnson has produced an average of 94 across his past five games while also being consistent.
FOOTY PROPHET’S FANTASY FIVE
• Mark Blicavs ($505 000, RUC/MID)
• Joel Selwood ($497 000, MID)
• Josh Caddy ($431 000, MID)
• James Kelly ($438 000, DEF/MID)
• Matthew Stokes ($413 000, MID)